FinSmart Studio

FinSmart calculation guide

Limits of withdrawal-rate targets.

Written and reviewed by Jisung Kim · Updated 2026-08-05

The FinSmart target divides annual spending by a selected withdrawal rate. It is useful for seeing how the rate changes the target, but it does not simulate a full retirement plan.

The formula

target portfolio = monthly spending × 12 ÷ withdrawal rate

Why 4% is not a promise

A 4% rate is a widely discussed historical starting assumption based on specific markets, portfolios and retirement periods. Different returns, inflation, taxes, fees and lifespans can change the result.

Sequence-of-returns risk

Poor returns early in retirement can be more damaging than the same average returns arriving later, because withdrawals reduce the capital available for recovery.

Better scenario use

  1. Test several spending levels.
  2. Compare multiple withdrawal rates.
  3. Model tax and health costs separately.
  4. Revisit the target as circumstances change.

Open the target calculator · Read the methodology

Not retirement advice. A simple target cannot establish whether a portfolio will last.